The factors affecting female black bear harvest rates in Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania’s black bear (Ursus americanus) population increased in abundance and distribution during the latter third of the 20th century, leading to an increase in human-bear conflicts. Increases in harvest opportunities from 2002–2018 aimed to stabilize black bear population growth but did not substantially increase harvest, and annual harvest was often below the desired goal of 20% removal. Consequently, additional changes to Pennsylvania’s black bear hunting seasons occurred from 2019–2021, including starting harvest earlier, expanding the length of seasons, and adding additional seasons (i.e., a muzzleloader and special rifle season). Understanding how earlier harvest seasons and new methods of take (i.e., muzzleloader) influence female black bear harvest vulnerability is important to informing harvest management. We trapped and GPS-collared adult female bears in the Sproul State Forest in northcentral Pennsylvania from 2019–2021 to determine home range sizes, patterns of resource selection, and sources of mortality during fall harvest seasons. We assessed annual variability in relative abundance of fall hard mast. We evaluated temporal and spatial variation in hunter activity with road-side surveys and remote camera traps, respectively. We estimated fall and weekly home range size with utilization distributions through an autocorrelated kernel density estimation and evaluated the influence of predictors hypothesized to influence third-order resource selection using generalized linear mixed models. We investigated factors hypothesized to influence female black bear survival during hunting seasons with known-fate models. Mean fall home range size was 248.7 km2 (range = 6.1–2636.1 km2). Home range sizes varied by year and were generally smaller during archery harvest season than other periods. Patterns of weekly resource selection indicated bears shifted their space use to areas with lower elevations during hunting seasons, and to less-steep areas in the week before harvest and the first week of harvest. Bears selected for areas containing oak (Quercus spp.) trees throughout the fall. Survival was lower in older age bears, greater relative mast abundance conditions, steeper slopes, and areas of greater hunter space use during the general firearms season. Survival was higher in areas of greater hunter space use during archery season. Harvest rate of adult female bears was 0.345 in 2019, 0.321 in 2020, and 0.150 in 2021, and averaged 0.272 across all three years. The probability of an adult female black bear surviving all harvest seasons each year was 0.611 (SE = 0.086, 95% CI = 0.436, 0.761). The high harvest rate and low predicted survival may lead to population reduction.