Retrospective Analysis of Preseason Run Forecast Models for Warm Springs stock Spring Chinook Salmon in the Deschutes River, Oregon

A retrospective analysis of run forecast models for Warm Spring River wild and Warm Springs NFH hatchery spring Chinook salmon was performed based on the methods of Haeseker et al. 2008. The two models that are currently used for run forecasting, the standard linear regression model and cohort model (Lovtang et al. 2011), were re-run on an annual basis starting with return year 1990 using only the data that would have been available to managers at the time. In addition, several alternative forecast models that are used throughout the Pacific Northwest were evaluated for comparison to the traditional forecast models. Performance of each model was evaluated using a variety of metrics
that quantify a forecast model’s accuracy.